Global Burden of Disease 2016 for Parkinson's

The research record

This is the project's file for this landmark, as written and checked. Sources are listed at the end; anything not yet confirmed is marked "Not yet verified".

Who

The GBD 2016 Parkinson's Disease Collaborators. E. Ray Dorsey and Alexis Elbaz prepared the first draft; Emma Nichols, V.L. Feigin and T. Vos analysed the data (contributors statement). Lancet Neurology 17(11):939–953, November 2018. Funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

What happened

The Global Burden of Disease study pools surveys, registries and death records into modelled estimates for each country and region. For Parkinson's, 1990–2016:

• Prevalent cases: 6.1 million (95% uncertainty interval 5.0–7.3) against 2.5 million.
• Crude prevalence rose 74.3%; age-standardised prevalence (adjusted for ageing populations) rose 21.7%.
• 2016 deaths 211,296; disability-adjusted life years (years lost to illness and early death) 3.2 million.
• Male to female prevalence ratio 1.40.
• Rates rose in every region except southern Latin America, eastern Europe and Oceania.

The paper notes that in the 2015 round Parkinson's was the fastest-growing neurological disorder in prevalence, disability and deaths. The authors credit ageing for much of the rise, plus longer survival, and floated pesticides, solvents, metals and falling smoking as possible contributors, all unproven. Age-standardised DALY rates also rose with national income (Socio-demographic Index), and the paper singles out China, where age-adjusted prevalence more than doubled.

Why it moved us toward a cure

It put a number on what a cure is worth, and the age-standardised rise suggests more than ageing is at work, which links to the exposure studies (landmark 25 is related background, not a parent).

Outcome

Advanced as the standard reference count. It is a model, not a census. The authors note sparse data in low-income regions, large unexplained differences in death rates between countries that suggest coding practices, and that estimates are refined and can change with each GBD round. A 2021 correction (Lancet Neurol 2021;20:e7) only added two authors, Nooshin Abbasi and Samer Hamidi, to the collaborators list and updated affiliations; it changes no figure.

Sources

• GBD 2016 Parkinson's Disease Collaborators, Lancet Neurol 2018;17:939–953, DOI 10.1016/S1474-4422(18)30295-3 (PMC6191528)
• Correction to Lancet Neurol 2018;17:939–53, Lancet Neurol 2021;20(12):e7, DOI 10.1016/S1474-4422(21)00382-3, PMID 34800419
• Not yet verified: the earlier file's "25-fold range" in national mortality (not found in the full text, so removed); how later GBD rounds revised these counts.